RBC note on midterm races that are too close to call

RBC note on midterm races that are too close to call

RBC note on midterm races that are too close to call

"I want to introduce three people that probably you've heard of, and you know I just left OH and I said I will never mention the word "beautiful" when referring to a woman". Having elected someone president, Americans are collectively ready to punch him on the nose after just 24 months. In practical terms that means that for McCaskill to hold on in Missouri, Donnelly in IN and Tester in Montana, and for Heitkamp to mount a comeback in North Dakota, the terrain is steep but not insurmountable.

Pelosi told the Times that if Hillary had become president she wouldn't care about regaining the Speaker's gavel.

So you think President Trump is exceptionally unpopular? Mr Trump's approval rating is a dismal 42%.

Ammar Campa-Najjar, a Palestinian-American who worked as a White House aide for President Barack Obama, was raised by his mother's Mexican-American family, is a Christian, and changed his middle name from Yasser to Joseph, according to a Washington Post fact-check. But Trump is more popular than Harry Truman in 1946 and 1950, Reagan in 1982 - amazing, isn't it? - and Bush in 2006. A Republican sweep of both the House and Senate would be viewed as a positive outcome for the stock market, while a Democratic sweep would be "a short-term negative", especially for health care stocks.

Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Missouri, ahead of tomorrow's midterm elections.

Another way to read the tea-leaves is to look at the popularity of the two parties themselves, as revealed in the generic ballot. Young people, who historically sit out of midterm elections, and women are both expected to be pivotal forces Tuesday. Republicans are now behind by 8.5 percent.

The Senate map for Democrats is brutal, however. In Florida, Independents have been breaking towards the Democrats all fall, while Rick Scott could never crack 50% in Florida in good Republican years even when he had a greater cash advantage than he enjoys this year.

This year, history is on Democrats' side.

One of those is Democrat Beto O'Rourke's challenge to Senator Ted Cruz in traditionally deep-Republican Texas. "Cordray, a bad person who will do a awful job", Trump told the crowd.

"Illinois Nazis" may have been a punchline of 1980's cult classic film "Blues Brothers, ' but an actual Holocaust-denying National Socialist is running for a House seat in Illinois" 3rd district, on the Republican ticket. The answer is that the Democrats are having to defend 26 of their seats - 10 in states won by Trump in 2016 - while the Republicans have only nine seats in play, making it the most skewed contest since 1938. Claire McCaskill's race against challenger Josh Hawley is seen as a referendum on Trump, and Florida where vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson is also up against it in Florida. So is Joe Donnelly in Indiana. That means Democrats would only need to win seven of the 30 seats that Cook rates as "toss-ups".

But numerous key Senate battlegrounds are conservative states, like Missouri and Montana, where Trump excelled in 2016 and remains popular. But don't be surprised to see Mitch McConnell still in charge when all is said and done.

If Senate Democrats thought their attempt to derail the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice would pay political dividends in November, they could not have been more wrong. The hearings at which Kavanaugh was confronted by his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, backfired spectacularly as men - and many women - all over the American heartland sided with Kavanaugh. Of course, there may be no stopping the polarization.

American voters have watched the economy grow for two years under Trump, McDaniel said on ABC.

Yet there is another scenario.

Friday's remarks in Miami were among the most fiery, as Obama mocked the Clinton email controversy of 2016 and blasted Republicans warning about the approaching migrant caravan. She loathes Trump, no doubt.

Mr Trump has also urged the electorate to turn out and vote - a message put across even more vigorously by Mr Obama.

In the week leading up to Tuesday's elections, Trump said he was optimistic about the outcome for the Republican Party, while at the same time using fear tactics to try to gain more support for his party.

Many Democrats are counting on anti-Trump fervor to drive their base to the polls, but some advocate ignoring the politics of personal destruction and zeroing in on policy debates.

Niall Ferguson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

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